Bordeaux: The Crisis Laid Bare

BY NEAL
MARTIN | JUNE 4, 2025

Bordeaux
is facing its biggest crisis since the 1930s. 

My
first draft sugared the pill. However, after speaking candidly and off the
record to people in and outside of Bordeaux, I felt a duty to depict the sheer
scale of the calamity the Bordeaux wine industry is up against. A few commentators
sporting rose-tinted spectacles recently opined that “it’ll all blow over.” 

That is
not going to happen. 

A
couple of winemakers ostensibly admitted that they are losing their raison d’être.
All that work to create the best wine that Mother Nature allowed was for what
exactly? Another, an international financier, had recently examined the
accounts of a well-known château, one of many privately for sale like strays in
a dog home. The figures did not add up. The annual losses made it unsellable. A
seasoned Bordeaux-based merchant launched into a heartfelt tirade about an
industry prone to self-harm, an industry staring into the abyss, before listing
the multitude of 2024s that did not sell a single bottle. “It’s certainly been
our worst en primeur campaign for over 25 years,” remarked another U.K.
merchant. He is not alone in that sentiment.

Despite
the tumult, some proprietors still believe that they can get away with a “gesture”
reduction. The most worrying aspect is the absence of hope galloping over the
horizon. History is telling. After the crisis in the 1930s, most estates did
not return to profit until the 1959 vintage, despite hallowed vintages like
1945 and 1953. Of course, the landscape is completely different in 2025, except
that the rules of supply and demand remain unchanged. If your wine does
not sell, you have no income. The repercussions of what is unfolding right now
may take years to resolve, if ever. 

Surely,
there is a glimmer of hope. There were literally a handful that, against
the odds, did manage to sell their 2024s. Step forward Les Carmes Haut-Brion, thanks
to a combination of plaudits, price and backstory. Lafite-Rothschild performed
best amongst the First Growths, albeit accepting more takers if you want them.
Otherwise, telephones never rang and inboxes remained empty. The figures I have
seen first-hand make for appalling reading. As unsold cases wash up on châteaux’s once spotless
shores, reality might finally hit home, even if the most stubborn denialists cling
to the belief that it is a cycle and they just need to ride out the storm. They
cannot feel the shift of tectonic plates beneath their feet.

Where
did it go wrong? 

Perversely,
I trace it back to the 2009 campaign, so successful that it skewed
expectations, whipped up avarice, instilled feelings of invincibility and
encouraged some to pursue easy money. Proprietors rebranded their wines as
luxury brands and by extension, investment vehicles that attracted outside
investors. Many—though
not all—of these speculators had little passion for wine but an insatiable
appetite for healthy returns. Subsequently, the once cohesive structure of
Bordeaux that bound châteaux, appellations, and organisational bodies together began
to fracture. Solipsism spread through the top tiers of the region, concern
extending little beyond their vineyard walls. Cooperation faltered. Bordeaux
became a bipolar region of excessively wealthy or desperately poor, the gap mercilessly
widened by climate change, inequality favouring those with technical means or
deep pockets. At the top of the hierarchy, price hikes were predesigned to connote
quality and superiority over competitors. Consumers with a genuine passion and
loyalty towards Bordeaux wine decried the inflation, lamenting that they could
no longer afford their favourite wines. Protests fell on deaf ears or were
belittled as “Bordeaux bashing.” The inference was that if a château’s wine was
now too expensive, then you were unworthy—go drink something else. That is exactly
what consumers did. En masse. 

The
other disease, apart from greed, was wanton shortsightedness. Prices were set
to max out profits for the current vintage instead of nurturing demand and loyalty
over the long term. The yardstick of success <a target="_blank">was
measured</a> solely by market value, and price hikes <a target="_blank">were
imposed</a> with an unsavoury “take it or leave it” attitude, chateaux <a target="_blank">leveraging</a> their position as a quasi-monopoly. After
all, “Château Fantastique” can only come from “Château Fantastique.” There was
little negotiation so that each could see the business environment of the other
side. 

Increases
were no longer sweetened by reductions in less well-received vintages. If there
was an excuse to raise prices, then it was seized. If there was a reason to
lower them, it was conveniently forgotten. Luxury does not discount. 

In any
case, there were egos and shareholder expectations to appease, aside from what in
hindsight could <a target="_blank">be viewed</a> as superfluous outlays.
The mantra was “quality at any cost,” whether that was in the vineyard or the
bespoke winery designed by a world-renowned architect, predicated on the notion
that people will never demur paying more for superior wines, as if there exists
no upper limit. <a target="_blank">In reality, nearly</a> all wine lovers with
discerning palates have a <a target="_blank">maximum</a> price they are
willing to pay, irrespective of reputation, points or whether the château
installed a swanky, marble-clad tasting room. Arguably, what most investments achieve
is improved consistency rather than elevating quality to a higher echelon,
which is a debate for another time. 

Shortsightedness
takes another form. As soon as the newest vintage <a target="_blank">was
sold</a> to négociants, the châteaux considered their job done. Hence, the <a target="_blank">frequently</a> heard refrain uttered in a self-congratulatory
tone: “We sold our entire production in 30 or 60 seconds…” 

A fatal
error, whether that is naivety or blissful ignorance. 

It was
a chimera of success. 

For
châteaux, the idea that their lauded wine might be gathering dust in warehouses
was not their problem. That’s simply how the distribution system was set up, a
system capsizing under its own inability to achieve its purpose: dispersing
wine to end consumers in an efficient, cost-effective fashion so that each tier
of distribution can obtain a decent profit. The market became clogged with
an ocean of unsold stock, like a petrol car filled with diesel. 

Hey,
who cares if interest rates are low and that stock is an appreciating asset? Négociants
or merchants should be happy, acting like unregulated banks and reaping the
profits. 

Except most
of them began operating on scarcely workable margins. Sometimes a sale would
mean a négociant or merchant could break even, occasionally even selling at a loss
to curry favour or safeguard next year’s allocations in the hope that the
economic headwinds would swing in another direction. It was like a toxic
relationship where two lovers cannot be honest with each other. Simultaneously,
the wines were vanishing from restaurant lists. Sommeliers became apathetic or
hostile towards Bordeaux. Worst of all, an entire generation became
disenfranchised and lost their taste and appreciation for Bordeaux. As I said
already, people just moved on. I warned of this repeatedly over my career, yet
it <a target="_blank">was always seen</a> as some kind of existential problem.


What
underlines the failure of the 2024 primeur campaign specifically?

1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Most châteaux reduced prices by
20% to 30% against last year. Right direction, though what else in a vintage
that was unequivocally not great? Difficult as it might be to swallow, reductions
needed to be at least 50% to have any impact on moribund demand. Châteaux
might flinch at such a preposterous idea. I suggest examining actual sales
first and reflecting on historical price rises that consumers had to swallow.
Care to compare?

2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Exchange rates are a significant
factor, especially the weak U.S. dollar. Not Bordeaux’s problem? Yes, it is
when your allocation is refused. &nbsp;

3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; More than one merchant remarked
that the main cause for consumer apathy is not actual prices, but the fact that
several back vintages are physically available in enormous quantities,
eviscerating any motivation to buy primeur. There is no fear of losing out. Even
when release prices <a target="_blank">were dialled</a> back to levels—to
quote sales pitches—"not seen since 2013 or 2014,” there is <a target="_blank">nearly always</a> an alternative vintage within arm’s reach
at a similar price. Why risk money on an unfinished wine when there is no need?


4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; When back vintages are available
for 20% or 30% LESS than their release prices, again, it completely undermines
the primeur system, not least any financial return on buying the latest
inconsistent vintage. Vast swathes of consumers who had bought primeur felt swindled
by the system. The overpriced 2021 vintage is one that certainly sticks in
the craw, especially after Bordeaux had a chance to reset after the
well-received 2019 campaign. Then again, most of those wines now sell below
their release prices.

5.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Bordeaux is no longer the centre
of attention. Burgundy, Piedmont, Champagnek California and <a target="_blank">numerous</a> up-and-coming countries like South Africa, et
al., have all taken a piece of the pie, and with fewer and fewer people
drinking alcohol due to lack of disposable income, health awareness, lifestyle
changes and strengthening anti-alcohol lobby, that pie is shrinking.

6.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The economic climate. Financial
and geopolitical uncertainty, higher interest rates and inflation all dissuade
consumers from spending, especially on luxury products. You know it all. 

The abject
failure of the 2024 campaign has put the Bordeaux industry, not just the
châteaux but any enterprise connected with the trade, into a critical
condition. It has been there for several years, but many refused to acknowledge
it. The scale of the crisis depends on who you are. Part of a billionaire’s
portfolio or a cash-rich global conglomerate? Then there is less pressure, and theoretically
you can keep calm and carry on. That said, unsold stock is not a good look,
damaging the brand and calling business acumen into question. 

The
five First Growths <a target="_blank">are buffered</a> by historical and
premium status. Even they produce hundreds of barrels each year, barrels
that at some point must <a target="_blank">be sold</a>. Assuming that a
significant percentage of buyers are motivated by future returns, then those gains
can only be made when the wines are resold, kicking the problem into the long
grass. The tiers below? Grand Cru Classés and notable Right Bank estates are very
exposed. Irrespective of quality, these estates <a target="_blank">are not
cushioned</a> by First Growth status, nor are they sufficiently inexpensive to
attract average buyers who are now far more prudent with cash than they used to
be. Trust me, there are some very well-known names wondering how long they can
hang on if things continue in this direction, as they surely will. As for the
innumerable Petit Châteaux and Cru Bourgeois, many face extinction. The
personal trauma and loss of livelihoods will not make front-page news. They
will quietly disappear, collateral damage of changing times. 

Is
there any solution? There is one. It is an exemplar of Occam’s razor. In other
words, it’s obvious…

Slash
release prices by 50% to 60%. Swallow your pride. Don’t kid yourself that every wine lover
equates quality with price—consumers are cleverer than that. Your true
followers equate quality with taste and pleasure. They want to drink wine, not
make a dime from it. For all those claiming it is out of the question, feel
free to publish a breakdown of the unit cost of a bottle of wine. If the Bordelais
don’t do it, the market will do it for them in a brutal and ruthless fashion. This
is already occuring in the form of under-the-table deals to offload stock and
shore up liquidity. Such discounts will ineluctably render back vintages overpriced.
Here is the news: They always were. Nothing is going to change that. Again,
market forces will sort that out, and it will not be pretty.

But let
me give you a microcosm of how the market can work in Bordeaux’s favour. At a
couple of dinners, I asked everyone around the table whether they had bought
that day’s primeur release. 

“No,”
they replied in unison. “There is no financial reason.”

Then I
began lowering the price like an auction in reverse, and they continued to
reply “No”…until I reached a certain figure. It was not just one person who
responded affirmatively.

They
all did. 

There
is a tipping point where consumers will take the bait, a release price where buyers
would not dribble back, but flood back, even in this economic climate. That equilibrium
<a target="_blank">is seen</a> as <a target="_blank">totally unacceptable</a>
for reasons explained earlier, but essentially it boils down to a loss of face.
It would <a target="_blank">be construed</a> as an admission of failure. The
complete antithesis of what all these châteaux’s much-touted investments <a target="_blank">were designed</a> to achieve. I would counter-argue that price
reductions of this scale would <a target="_blank">be seen</a> as a gesture
of goodwill, something Bordeaux needs in order to rebuild its reputation and
its bond with wine lovers. It could be a catalyst for restored loyalty. In the
long term, Bordeaux might see its wines return to restaurants and dining tables.
It might be the spark that reaps long-term rewards. Down the line, proprietors will
look back and say it was a tough decision…but it worked. 

Because
I do not believe this is an economic cycle. The halcyon days of 1982, 2005,
2009 or 2019 are not going to return in the current climate. With each passing primeur,
as each unsold vintage <a target="_blank">is unceremoniously piled</a>
onto the last, the situation worsens and becomes less recoverable. The
Bordelais must take a sober look at what a bottle of fermented grape juice is
worth. The danger is that a significant devaluation would incur a huge write-down
in producers’ inventory, and since many estates are financed by banks, this
could risk insolvency, not least for négociants holding stock. But if sales
remain stagnant, many will quickly run out of liquidity anyway. 

The
answer lies in what consumers are willing to pay for the wine, not what the
château thinks. 

Stop the
pointless and illogical comparison to Burgundy, a region operating in a
completely different economic sphere, albeit one not immune to a similar fate.
Be proud of producing high quality and high volumes. No other region does that
like Bordeaux. Accept that the law of microeconomics means that higher
quantities will always exert downward pressure on market prices. The fact that
so many can savour a great Bordeaux is something that should be treasured, much
more than the sight of collectors fighting over measly allocations, too often
for little more than bragging rights. This requires a completely different
mindset from proprietors and winemakers. Whether that can prevail, I am doubtful.
This will continue to be Bordeaux’s undoing.

Bypass
the Bordeaux Place? I have said it before and will say it again: It
works when the price is correct, and it falls apart if the price is wrong. Occam’s
razor again. The finger-pointing must stop. Châteaux blaming négociants
and négociants blaming châteaux. There are good and bad apples on either side.
At the end of the day, everyone works for the same team, something often
forgotten during the ongoing internecine war of words. 

At Vinous
Icons: New York this past February, I remarked to the audience that Bordeaux must
get corks popping, lest it becomes a museum for wines that ancestors once enjoyed.
The Bordeaux market is salvageable, but the distribution system needs to
be fit for purpose. Châteaux must connect with real customers
face-to-face and hear their concerns. Maybe the horse has already bolted. All
parties involved in the Bordeaux wine industry should have sat around a table in
2012 or 2013 and worked out a long-term strategy. The pretence on all sides should’ve
been nipped in the bud long ago. The consequences are now coming to bear. But
remember, many consumers still love Bordeaux wines, including yours truly,
maybe now more than ever as I savour memories of a double magnum of 1990
Hennebelle last weekend, a modest, cheap-as-chips Haut-Médoc superior to most
highfalutin Burgundies made that year. Indeed, in recent months, I have noticed
an uptick in Bordeaux-themed dinners because the wines still represent
comparatively great value. However, these are predominantly bottles purchased
when Bordeaux was still worth buying en primeur. 

The
2025 vintage is less than a year away. Whether en primeur is a year away is a
different question. Whatever form in which it returns, it will be damaged and will
not be the same.© 2025, Vinous. No portion of this article may be copied, shared or redistributed without prior consent from Vinous. Doing so is not only a violation of our copyright, but also threatens the survival of independent wine criticism.<hr> You Might Also Enjoy<a target="_blank" href="https://vinous.com/articles/event-horizon-bordeaux-2024-primeur-may-2025">Event Horizon: Bordeaux 2024 Primeur</a>, Neal Martin, May 2025<a target="_blank" href="https://vinous.com/articles/2024-bordeaux-en-primeur-the-razors-edge-apr-2025">2024 Bordeaux En Primeur: The Razor’s Edge</a>, Antonio Galloni, April 2025<a target="_blank" href="https://vinous.com/articles/a-place-beyond-praise-bordeaux-2022-feb-2025"></a><a target="_blank" href="https://vinous.com/articles/a-place-beyond-praise-bordeaux-2022-feb-2025">A Place Beyond Praise: Bordeaux 2022</a>, Neal Martin, February 2025<a target="_blank" href="https://vinous.com/articles/2022-bordeaux-in-bottle-living-in-the-present-jan-2025">2022 Bordeaux in Bottle: Living in the Present</a>, Antonio Galloni, January 2025<a target="_blank" href="https://vinous.com/articles/bordeaux-2020-the-southwold-tasting-nov-2024">Bordeaux 2020 – The Southwold Tasting</a>, Neal Martin, November 2024

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